A vaccine for swine flu is now being given to priority groups
By
Jenny Hope
Last updated at 7:59 AM on 23rd October 2009
A vaccine for swine flu is now being given to priority groups
Four people have died of swine flu in the space of 24 hours as experts predict children will be hardest hit by the second surge of the pandemic.
A teenager was among the latest deaths as new cases of swine flu almost doubled to reach 53,000 in the last week.
The four people who died in the last 24 hours in Scotland were a 16-year-old boy, a 77-year-old man and two women aged 47 and 54.
All of them had significant underlying health problems.
The number of deaths of people in the UK suffering from swine flu has risen to 128, with 93 deaths in England, 21 in Scotland, eight in Northern Ireland and six in Wales.
Health chiefs said nearly one in three children is likely to catch it this winter, while up to 17 per cent of paediatric critical care beds are currently occupied by swine flu victims.
The number of patients needing hospital care has risen to 506 in England with 99 in critical care - the highest since the pandemic began.
Of those patients needing critical care, 23 are children aged 15 and under, said the Government's chief medical officer Sir Liam Donaldson.
He said the NHS was operating under severe pressure and doctors had been worried by the severity of the disease in some patients - many of them young people - and how quickly it could become a life and death situation.
He said: 'They have been unnerved by the speed at which patients deteriorate.
'The small proportion of patients who are severely affected is growing slightly. But we don't know why,' he added.
A mass vaccination programme got underway in hospitals this week and is due to start in GP surgeries from Monday.
But children are not being routinely vaccinated; they will get GSK's Pandemrix only if they have underlying health conditions such as asthma or heart disease.
Although the Government's expert advisers have cut the expected toll from swine flu to around 1,000 further deaths, they are still concerned about the disproportionate effect on children.
It is anticipated that 12 per cent of the population overall will catch swine flu - a lower figure than originally thought - but the 30 per cent estimate of children who will be affected has remained the same.
Sir Liam admitted it was 'a very high proportion' and the highest of any age group.
He said the question of whether healthy children should be offered the jab as a priority in the next phase of the vaccine programme will be discussed by the Government's medical advisers.
The first phase involving 12 million high-risk patients and up to two million frontline staff should be completed by the end of November.
Because most people can be protected using one dose of Pandemrix rather than two, the programme is expected to be finished more quickly and more doses will be available for those deemed to be the next priority.
Sir Liam said he was concerned by the high proportion of deaths in younger age groups, describing it as a 'very unusual pattern for flu'.
More than half - 54 per cent - of deaths have been in the under-45 age group while 77 per cent have been in the under-65 group.
With seasonal flu the majority of deaths would be expected in the over-65s.
One in three deaths related to people who had little or no underlying health problems.
Of the swine flu-related deaths so far, 20 per cent have been among those aged 15 or under, 34 per cent were aged 16-44, and 23 per cent of deaths affected those aged 45-64 and those aged over 65.
Sir Liam said: 'It's highly unusual to have so many younger people dying. We should not pass this off as an acceptable number.'
The estimated number of new cases this week was 53,000, up from 27,000, and the total number of cases is estimated at 435,000.
The number of cases could peak at 1.5million people ill in a single week, putting prolonged pressure on the NHS over the winter.
There could be 35,000 more hospital admissions, with 15 per cent of patients needing critical care.
If such a scenario unfolds, there could be a total of 1,000 deaths and five per cent of working people off sick with swine flu.
Chief Medical Officer Sir Liam Donaldson admits he is worried about the pressure on the NHS from swine flu
Sir Liam said: 'We are starting to worry about the sustained pressure over the winter that the NHS might face.
'It's a very long period for the NHS to sustain its response.
'There is concern about the continuing pressure that the NHS is likely to be under this winter from swine flu over a sustained period of time but also from other winter illnesses including seasonal flu.'
The percentage of paediatric critical care beds occupied with swine flu patients ranges from four per cent to 16.7 per cent in some areas.
Ian Dalton, national director of NHS flu resilience, said the NHS intended to increase critical care capacity by 100 per cent for a sustained period of time when its 'surge' plan was triggered.
The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency announced plans to monitor the safety of the vaccines, including a website where patients can register suspected side effects.
Chief executive Professor Kent Woods said a small proportion of patients would suffer side effects, mostly minor, and the agency would be looking into any other unexpected reactions.
Sir Liam said the possibility of offering the vaccine more quickly to certain at-risk groups such as special schools is being considered by Health Secretary Andy Burnham after the deaths of two disabled children in Northern Ireland.